Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (March 2020 Update)

2019 "Index Fund" EXPERIMENT – Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 – Mar 2020/Month Twenty-Seven Update – Down 87%

See the full blog post with all the tables here.

tl;dr – take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there.

tl;dr II – Unlike the 2018 Top Ten, the 2019 Top Ten have over-performed the market since Jan 2019 by a seven point swing (2019 Top Ten +6%; S&P 500 since Jan 2019 -1%). Teaser for the next update I'll release on Reddit in a few days: the 2020 Top Ten have about a +30% swing over the S&P. Each 2019 Top Ten crypto lost ground in March. Overall, BSV has performed the best since Jan 2019, XLM the worst.

Month Fifteen – UP 6%

100% red this month, but the portfolio is still up about +6.5% since January 2019.

Ranking and March Winners and Losers

Not much movement in the rankings this month, despite the world ending. Bitcoin Cash and Tether switched places and Tron slipped one position to spot #16.

Stellar and Tron are still the only two cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten. They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos.

March Winners – With all other cryptos falling, Tether wins the month. I’ll give BTC and XRP the distant second place trophy, both down -23% in March.

March LosersEthereum and EOS were the clear losers this month, down -38% and -36% respectively in March.

For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first fifteen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with five monthly victories followed by BSV in second place with three. BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in five out of fifteen months.

Overall update – BSV barely in the lead over BTC, Stellar solidly in the basement.

BSV lost more ground to Bitcoin this month and now now holds a very slim lead, up +77% since January 2019 vs. second place BTC‘s +75%. Bitcoin Cash follows in third place, up +36% in the first fifteen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment. My initial $100 investment in BSV is now worth $179.

The strong returns we saw earlier in the year are evaporating: four out of ten from this group were up over the +100% mark in January, then two out of ten in February. At the end of March, that number is zero. That said, 60% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos have either broke even or are solidly in the green.

Stellar is still solidly in the basement, down -64% after the first fifteen months. XRP is the second worst performer, down -51%.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market lost about $60B in March 2020 but is still up +46% since the 2019 Top Ten Experiment began in January 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance gained bout +1.5% in March, something we’ve seen time and time again over the course of all three experiments when the market suffers. The range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio lost $408 in March. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $1,065, up about +6.5%.

Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first fifteen months of the experiment, month by month:

As you can see, every month except the first month (January 2019) is green. At the lowest point, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio was down -9%, at the highest point, up +114% (May 2019).

How does the 2019 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?

Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:

After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,267‬.

That’s down about -24% (compared to about +5.6% last month).

How does this compare to the current global meltdown in traditional markets?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m glad you asked. I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 took another COVID-19 beating in March and is now down -1% since January 2019 (for reference, it was up +18% at the end of February).

The 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +6.5% over the same time period.

So, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto would now be worth $990 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.

But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:

  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: -$80
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: -$10
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$230

Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:

After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $2,680.

That’s down about -11% compared to -24% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.

That’s a 13% difference. Last month the gap was only 1%.

Implications/Observations:

While the crypto market as a whole is up +46% since January 2019, the 2019 Top Ten cryptos have gained just +6%, a 40% gap.

This is just like the 2018 Top Ten portfolio as at no point in the first twenty-seven months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first three months of 2020 Experiment updates show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy, at least at this point in the 2020 Top Ten portfolio

Conclusion:

The effects of COVID only look to increase in April. Besides the massive societal and personal toll, how will traditional markets react and will people consider crypto a safe haven?

Final word: take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there.

Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

submitted by /u/Joe-M-4
[comments]



Source link

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here